It was a crazy year the 2023. Globally, we’re witnessing a pole shift. Regionally, major changes are happening every few months. And in Colombia, the uncertainty is almost palpable. After fifteen months of the new progressive government, a lot of things are being said about the future of the country. Media and traditional powers are spreading large campaigns about the absolute failure of Colombia’s new management. First, we can say that we shouldn’t be making catastrophic conclusions, only 25% into Petro’s term. We want to ask the pertinent questions: Has Gustavo Petro’s government failed? Have there been real changes? Is there any hope behind all the pessimism promoted by the Colombian opposition? This article aims to dissect these questions in the good old formula of ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,’ offering a comprehensive view of the current Colombian landscape.
Winds of Change
Colombians voted for change, not out of mere desire, but because it has been evident for a while now that Colombia needed a change in several fields. So, is there a change? Yes, at least we can see signals of a big change. Although, it’s still too early to consider that the country has changed. According to Petro, the change will take at least 12 years. But there are multiple signs of the beginning of that change.
Peace Efforts
For over two decades, ever since the rise of the far-right wing ideology known as ‘uribismo’ in Colombia, the country has been governed under a paradigm that condones various forms of violence. A firm stance against left-wing guerrillas, fueled by the long conflict, served as the perfect platform for this political party, led by a single man, Alvaro Uribe, to run the country, promising a frontal war against illegal groups. After 20 years, the result of those policies and governments left a country with an even bigger and more complicated conflict, where, among other phenomena, the ties between that right-wing social faction with narco and paramilitary groups have been largely documented.
Having a government that has radically changed the discourse, from prisons and policing to a government that seeks peace through education and reducing social gaps, is a major change. Even though the promises of Total Peace seem far-fetched in a country like Colombia, the rhetoric and the image that this government is trying to cast over its citizens may be the first stone for a cultural change in a society that has suffered and normalized violence since time immemorial.
President Petro’s ambitious concept of “Total Peace” marks a paradigm shift in Colombia’s approach to resolving its longstanding conflicts. This initiative involves engaging in dialogue with all parties involved in the conflict, signaling a commitment to resolving issues through peaceful means rather than force. While the results of these efforts are yet to be fully realized, the approach has garnered significant international support. It recognizes the complexities and challenges of achieving peace in a context with diverse actors and interests but remains steadfast in its pursuit of a peaceful resolution to Colombia’s conflicts.
The (Beginning of the) Land Reform
For anyone in the rich countries, it may seem outdated to be speaking about a land reform in the 21st century, but in Colombia, it is not. Most outside Colombia may think that the main reason for the Colombian war revolves around cocaine and other illicit economies, but the real reason behind the Colombian Conflict is land ownership. Other governments had tried to push a land reform in Colombian history, but the idea was pretty much abandoned for several decades. According to Revista Semana, a staggering 81% of Colombian land is owned by just 1% of the largest farms. The remaining 19% of the land is distributed among 99% of the farms. The 0.1% of farms that exceed 2000 hectares occupy 60% of the land.”
This was a campaign promise from President Petro, and serious steps have been taken towards it. To date, the state has bought more than 42,000 hectares, out of a goal of 1.5 million hectares projected by the government for the full 4 years in office. And after only 15 months, the Petro government, according to AgroNegocios.co, “The hectares restored through court rulings, not added up until their physical handover, amounted to 24,555, while the hectares physically delivered correspond to 8,986.” It clearly is far from the end goal, but it also is a promising beginning.
Particularly, one institution must be mentioned in this case, the SAE, or Special Assets Agency, which manages and uses the assets confiscated from the mafias, which until the last government was using this agency as a center for paying favors and putting these assets in service of the close friends of the government.
Restoring Relations with Venezuela
At the highest point of commerce between Colombia and Venezuela, it reached USD 24.45 Billion, with a clear surplus for Colombia, thanks to Venezuela’s abundant oil reserves. Nonetheless, the right-wing governments under the uribista regime broke relations with Venezuela, based purely on ideological reasons, lowering that commerce inflow to a minuscule 330 million dollars, and pushing the entire border area into a conflict where illegal groups thrived.
Beyond any ideology, cutting relations with your main commercial partner, and a culturally identical country, should be considered by any geopolitical amateur as a major mistake. Among his initial actions in office, President Petro ordered the restoration of diplomatic and commercial relations with Venezuela. He has also led an international campaign aimed at reducing or eliminating the ongoing blockades against Venezuela, notably during his meetings with President Biden.
Today, we can’t say it’s all thanks to Petro’s mediation, but the USA has agreed to soften the sanctions against Venezuela, which can allow us to foresee a recovery of the Venezuelan economy which can only benefit the Colombian economy. We are still far from the USD 24 billion, but all that can happen are earnings for both countries. So far, Venezuela has announced agreements with several oil companies, including Colombia’s Ecopetrol.
Reducing Urban Unemployment
In October 2023, Colombia experienced a notable decrease in urban unemployment, reaching 9.2%, down from 9.7% in the same month of the previous year. This decline occurred despite the country’s economic contraction. The urban unemployment rate, which is a key indicator for the Colombian market, is measured in the 13 main cities and metropolitan areas, home to the majority of the country’s 50 million inhabitants. The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) reported this drop at a time when the Colombian economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. President Gustavo Petro celebrated this reduction in unemployment. The labor market figures also reveal an increase in the employment rate from 57.7% in October 2022 to 58.1% a year later. However, labor informality, one of the highest in the region, stood at 55.2%, significantly higher in rural areas (82.6%).
Controlling Inflation
In November 2023, Colombia’s inflation rate decreased to 10.15%, a drop of 2.38 percentage points compared to the same month in 2022, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had increased by 12.53%. This marks a gradual decline that began in April, following a peak in March at 13.34%, the highest since 1999. The most significant price increase over the last 12 months was in the transportation sector, with a 16.54% rise, largely driven by a 47.19% increase in fuel prices. In contrast, the information and communication category saw only a 0.36% change. Regionally, Santa Marta and Barranquilla experienced the highest inflation rates over the last year, at 11.56% and 11.43%, respectively, while Villavicencio and Ibagué had the lowest, at 8.01% and 8.93%.
Stronger Colombian Peso (COP)
The Colombian peso (COP) has emerged as one of the strongest performing emerging market currencies in 2023, poised to record its best performance since 2017. The COP has appreciated by 23.02% against the dollar as of the latest data, outperforming the Mexican peso, which is the second strongest currency with a 13.11% rise this year. Other notable currencies include the Polish zloty and the Brazilian real. This surge in the COP’s value is attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy changes.
Tax Collection Records
In 2022, Colombia’s tax collection agency, DIAN, exceeded its tax revenue target, achieving a collection of 228.6 trillion Colombian pesos, a 31.5% increase compared to 2021. This performance represents a 106% fulfillment of the set target for the year, which was initially set at 215.75%. The primary contributor to this tax revenue was income tax, accounting for 34.6% of the total collection. Customs taxes followed with a 21.3% contribution, surpassing the revenue from sales taxes (IVA), which contributed 19.8%. The revenue from taxes associated with economic activity totaled 179.89 trillion pesos, indicating a 28.5% growth. Additionally, taxes related to foreign trade amounted to 48.71 trillion pesos, a 43.9% increase from 2021. In December 2022 alone, the gross collection amounted to 15.17 trillion pesos, an 11.7% increase compared to the same month in 2021.
Education as the Primary Driver of Change
Education has been a cornerstone of Petro’s government. Infobae reports that a decree for free tuition in public universities has been signed by President Petro, marking a significant step towards accessible higher education. Diario Jurídico highlights Colombia’s commitment to free and universal public education from preschool onwards. These initiatives are expected to have a profound impact on the country’s educational landscape, opening doors for many who were previously excluded due to financial barriers.
Further educational policies are being planned, as indicated by the Ministry of Education’s website. The government is focusing on an educational statutory law that aims to regulate the sector and close gaps, ensuring quality education for future generations. This law represents a strategic approach to education, recognizing its role in shaping the country’s future.
Additionally, ‘Colombia Programa’, launched by President Gustavo Petro in collaboration with the Ministry of Information Technologies and Communications (MinTIC) and the British Council, is an innovative educational strategy aimed at enhancing programming and computational thinking skills across Colombia. Set to impact 896,000 students and 11,200 teachers by 2026, this initiative focuses on integrating modern technology into education, particularly targeting rural and urban youth, with an emphasis on gender inclusivity. The program, which will start in 2024, includes the development of pedagogical guides, the establishment of computational thinking nodes, and the provision of necessary digital tools, positioning Colombia at the forefront of digital education and skills development.
Restructuration of Armed Forces
In a significant move to democratize access to military education, Colombia has implemented a policy of free tuition for military and police education starting November 2023. This initiative, enacted through President Gustavo Petro’s Decree 1907, aims to provide opportunities for young Colombians from economically vulnerable backgrounds to pursue professional training in the armed forces and police. The decree aligns with the broader goal of the Law of Social Investment, focusing on state-funded education for the socioeconomically disadvantaged. The policy covers the entire duration of undergraduate programs in military and police training schools, ensuring that students can complete their education without financial burden. This reform is a strategic effort to address long-standing issues within the military and police institutions and to promote social mobility within these forces.
Truth Seeking Enforcement
President Gustavo Petro’s administration has placed a strong emphasis on truth-seeking as a cornerstone for peace and reconciliation in Colombia. His involvement in the Final Report Presentation of the “Comision de la Verdad” in June 2022 highlights this commitment. Petro emphasized the use of the Commission’s recommendations as tools for national reconciliation and peace, rather than as instruments of vengeance. He stressed the importance of breaking the cycles of violence and revenge that have plagued Colombia’s history. The report’s focus is not on retribution but on understanding and addressing the root causes of conflict, fostering a culture of dialogue and reconciliation. This approach is expected to be a key element in the planned justice reform for 2024, which aims to strengthen the legal framework supporting the peace process and address the legacy of Colombia’s conflict.
Green Diplomacy
President Petro’s advocacy for urgent climate action at several stages, including the recent COP28 in Dubai has positioned Colombia as a key player in global environmental diplomacy. His speech highlighted the responsibility of wealthy and powerful individuals in the context of rising CO2 emissions and the need for a global transition away from fossil fuels. Petro’s stance at the summit reflects a significant shift in Colombia’s diplomatic posture, moving away from traditional alignments and towards a leadership role in addressing climate change. His participation in COP28 and his inclusion in TIME Magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people of 2023 underscore his growing international influence and Colombia’s commitment to climate action.
Green Capitalism
Colombia’s engagement in green capitalism, particularly its recent move to join an international alliance advocating for a treaty to end the use of fossil fuels, represents a forward-thinking approach to environmental stewardship and economic development. However, this path is not without its challenges and complexities.
While the shift towards a decarbonized economy offers Colombia potential opportunities in leading green technology and sustainable practices, it also presents significant hurdles. The country’s current economic reliance on fossil fuels means that transitioning to a green economy will require a comprehensive restructuring of key sectors. This transition could lead to short-term economic disruptions and job losses, necessitating a careful and strategic approach to manage the social and economic impacts.
Moreover, the successful implementation of green capitalism in Colombia hinges on the availability of financial and technological resources. Developing or acquiring green technologies and building the necessary infrastructure for a sustainable economy will require substantial investment. Colombia must navigate these financial challenges while fostering innovation and technological advancement.
Balancing economic growth with environmental protection is another critical aspect. As Colombia explores avenues like eco-tourism and sustainable agriculture, it must ensure that these sectors grow in harmony with the preservation of its rich biodiversity. This balance is crucial to maintaining the ecological integrity upon which the green economy is predicated.
Colombia’s role in the global green economy is also influenced by international market dynamics and policies. The pace of global decarbonization and international trade agreements will significantly impact the country’s ability to capitalize on green economic opportunities.
In conclusion, while Colombia’s commitment to green capitalism presents a promising avenue for economic growth and environmental sustainability, it is a path marked by considerable challenges. A balanced, well-planned approach that considers the economic, social, and environmental aspects of this transition is essential for Colombia to realize the full potential of its green economy ambitions.
Reindustrialization and Railroads
President Gustavo Petro’s government is embarking on an ambitious project to redefine Colombia’s economic and productive landscape. The National Policy of Reindustrialization, planned for 2024-2034, aims to shift the economy from reliance on extractive activities to a focus on knowledge, productivity, sustainability, and inclusion. This policy seeks to close productivity gaps, diversify exports, strengthen productive linkages, and improve economic integration with various global regions. Key areas of focus include a just energy transition, strengthening agroindustry for food sovereignty, innovating in the health sector, and utilizing the defense industry for social welfare. This reindustrialization plan opens up business opportunities in renewable energies, sustainable food production, biomedicine, and security technologies. It also emphasizes education, technical training, and ICT development, crucial for the knowledge economy. The plan includes an action plan and financing scheme, combining public and private funds, and emphasizes the importance of coordination between different sectors and government levels.
Inside this re-industrialization plan, President Petro’s government is studying an ambitious plan to build railroads across Colombia, including a train connecting the Pacific Coast to the Caribbean Coast. This project aims to enhance the country’s connectivity and economic development, offering a significant boost to various sectors, including tourism, commerce, and industry. The plan reflects Petro’s vision of modernizing Colombia’s infrastructure and improving its logistical capabilities, which are crucial for the country’s growth and integration into the global economy. The implementation of such a vast railroad network would mark a significant advancement in Colombia’s transportation infrastructure, potentially transforming the way goods and people move across the country.
Reactivation of Tourism
Colombia’s tourism sector is experiencing a remarkable resurgence, with projections indicating a significant increase in tourist arrivals and revenue. The country expects to close the year with around 5.7 million tourists, marking a 23% growth compared to 2022. This upswing is particularly noteworthy as it surpasses pre-pandemic levels, signaling a robust recovery and a return to growth trajectories that had set records before the global health crisis.
Between January and September 2023, Colombia welcomed 4.198 million non-resident visitors, a 29.3% increase from the same period in 2022. This surge in tourism is not just a rebound from pandemic lows but a sign of sustained growth and recovery. The sector’s performance is even more impressive considering the global challenges in tourism recovery post-pandemic. Colombia stands out as one of the few Latin American countries to surpass pre-pandemic visitor numbers.
In terms of revenue, the tourism sector brought in $6.573 billion from January to September 2023, a 24% increase year-over-year. The average spending by non-resident visitors was $1,545. This growth in tourism revenue is significant, outpacing the overall increase in service sector foreign currency earnings, which rose by 13%. The tourism sector now represents 59% of the country’s service-related foreign currency income. These figures underscore the sector’s vital role in Colombia’s economic landscape and its potential as a driver of future growth.
The Problems
While the Petro government has brought a wave of optimism and change, it’s not without its fair share of challenges. Governing for the first time, the left in Colombia has encountered several roadblocks, some of which can be chalked up to inexperience and a bit of clumsiness.
Violence Still Out of Control
Despite efforts to stabilize the country, Colombia continues to grapple with significant levels of violence. President Gustavo Petro has acknowledged that his government has not been able to reduce the number of massacres in 2023, a stark reminder of the challenges facing his administration. This admission comes against the backdrop of a peace agreement with the FARC, reached during Juan Manuel Santos’ presidency, which had initially led to a decrease in such violent incidents. However, the situation deteriorated following the deactivation of peace processes under the previous right-wing government of Iván Duque, leading to an increase in massacres and deaths.
Petro highlighted that the current state of violence in Colombia remains at the same level as it was left by the Duque administration. Over a recent weekend, three massacres were recorded, resulting in eleven deaths in Antioquia and Valle del Cauca. The Clan del Golfo, a notorious criminal group, has been implicated in these incidents, particularly in the Santa Fe municipality of Antioquia, where the violence is attributed to conflicts over the control of illegal gold mining. Petro’s commitment to “retake the path of peace” aims to reverse this trend, but the persistence of such violence underscores the deep-rooted challenges in fully realizing peace and security in Colombia.
Exports are Going Down
Colombia’s export sector has faced a significant downturn, primarily due to the global crisis involving wars and climate change. According to data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and the National Tax and Customs Directorate (DIAN), the country’s external sales in June were USD 3.986 billion, a 27.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2022. This decline was mainly attributed to a drop in exports of fuels and mining products, followed by agricultural products, food and beverages, and the manufacturing sector. The first half of the year saw external sales amounting to USD 24.553 billion, representing a 13.6% decrease compared to the previous year. Factors like global warming and the Ukraine-Russia war have escalated production costs, particularly in agriculture, one of Colombia’s major export sectors. The situation is further complicated by reduced exports of hydrocarbons and their derivatives, as well as products like coal and coke.
Construction Sector in Crisis
The construction sector in Colombia is experiencing one of its most complex crises in recent years. Amid a global economic slowdown and changes in public policy, the sector faces a perfect storm. Data from Coordenada Urbana, the information system of the Colombian Chamber of Construction (Camacol), reveals a 50% contraction in housing sales between January and August, compared to the previous year. This downturn reflects the growing difficulty for Colombians to purchase homes. Factors contributing to this crisis include increased interest rates, particularly for mortgage loans, and changes in policies for social interest housing (VIS) under Petro’s government. The Ministry of Housing’s shift in subsidy allocation and the reduction in the number of subsidies planned for the coming years add to the sector’s challenges. Despite a reactivation plan worth 2.5 trillion pesos, the construction industry awaits more substantial measures to navigate through these turbulent times.
Corruption Still Present in Colombian Institutions
Corruption remains a systemic issue in Colombia, affecting various sectors and deepening inequality and poverty. The country scored 39 out of 100 in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), reflecting persistent structural problems. Despite President Petro’s campaign promises to tackle corruption, the challenge is daunting. High-profile cases like Odebrecht, Reficar, AIS, and scandals within the Supreme Court of Justice and the Attorney General Office highlight the depth of corruption in the country. Addressing corruption is critical to resolving other major issues like poverty, criminality, and illegal economies. However, the government faces a dilemma: pursuing corrupt politicians could jeopardize support for reforms in Congress. Transparency by Colombia notes that the country’s CPI score has not changed from the previous year, but its global ranking has dropped due to improvements in other countries.
Lack of Legislative Cohesion
The Petro administration is grappling with significant challenges in legislative cohesion, primarily due to the fragmented nature of its coalition, the Historic Pact for Colombia. This coalition, a diverse amalgamation of progressive forces, is not a formal political party, leading to inherent instability and a lack of unified direction. The recent regional elections have further exposed these cracks, with poor results sparking a debate about the coalition’s future and sustainability. President Petro’s proposal to transform the Historic Pact into a single political party aims to consolidate the left’s presence in Congress, but it faces resistance from smaller parties within the coalition, who fear losing their distinct identities.
Adding to these challenges is the fragmentation within key coalition partners like the Liberal and Green parties, where some members have shown an affinity towards the far right. This internal division complicates the government’s efforts to maintain a solid support base in Congress, crucial for pushing through its progressive agenda. The situation is further strained by Colombia’s electoral laws, which require political parties to cross a threshold to maintain legal status. The Historic Pact’s struggle to meet this threshold in recent elections raises concerns about the legal status of its constituent parties, underscoring the urgent need for a more cohesive and unified approach to governance.
A New Bureaucracy
In an attempt to address existing bureaucratic issues, the Petro government’s approach to creating new bureaucratic structures has drawn criticism. The National Association of Foreign Trade (Analdex) has raised concerns over the new sanctioning regime, which could impose severe penalties on businesses and complicate foreign trade. The proposed changes, including mandatory and global advance declarations, lack the necessary infrastructure and could lead to double sanctions for the same offense. Analdex suggests continuing with the pilot of advance operations and prioritizing adjustments in IT services to avoid repeating past mistakes.
In summary, while the Petro government’s progressive agenda marks a new chapter for Colombia, it faces significant challenges. From declining exports and a crisis in the construction sector to entrenched corruption and legislative hurdles, the administration must navigate these issues.
Little Execution
The Petro administration, despite its ambitious agenda, is facing significant challenges in budget execution, a crucial aspect of governance. The novelty of this progressive government and the massive change in leadership have contributed to a slower pace in implementing budgetary allocations. As of mid-2023, only 32.5% of the investment budget had been defined for spending, and just 47.4% of the entire budget had been utilized. This sluggish execution rate has been attributed to bureaucratic obstacles typical in the first year of a new administration, impacting various sectors including sports, agriculture, environment, labor, and transportation.
President Petro, recognizing the urgency of the situation, issued an ultimatum to his ministers, demanding improved performance in budget execution within a month. The slow pace of budget utilization not only hampers the delivery of public services and infrastructure projects but also risks reducing future budget allocations for underperforming sectors. The administration’s difficulties are further compounded by the need to balance efficient spending with avoiding hasty or uncontrolled disbursement, which can lead to poor practices and inefficiencies. This situation reflects the complexities of transitioning to a new government, especially one with a transformative agenda, and highlights the need for effective management and execution of public resources to fulfill the promises made to the Colombian people.
The Threats
As the first left-wing government in Colombian history, the Petro administration faces a myriad of challenges, and even some powerful enemies, not least of which are the numerous and complex threats that have emerged in the country’s socio-political landscape. These threats range from the enduring and now mutated internal conflict to new forms of violence and instability.
A More Complicated Everlasting Conflict
Seven years after the Colombian peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas was narrowly rejected by the public, the conflict in Colombia has evolved into a more complex and fragmented landscape. The succeeding right-wing government, elected on a platform of dismantling the peace agreement, actively worked towards this end, leading to a resurgence and mutation of violence. Today, the remnants of the FARC, now just one of many actors in this long-standing war, have contributed to a new face of conflict characterized by a proliferation of armed groups and a shift in their operations and objectives.
The post-peace agreement era has seen the rise of various groups, including the ELN (National Liberation Army), Clan del Golfo (a narcoparamilitary group), and FARC dissidents. These groups have diversified their activities, focusing less on ideological warfare and more on illicit businesses like drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion. The fragmentation of these groups has made it challenging to identify the perpetrators of violence, with massacres becoming a frequent and alarming occurrence. Regions like Arauca, Nariño, Cauca, and Catatumbo have become hotspots for such violence, often linked to control over illegal economies.
This evolving dynamic of the conflict in Colombia, characterized by a shift from ideological motivations to predominantly economic incentives, presents a formidable challenge for the current government. This challenge is further intensified by the physical presence of international drug cartels, particularly from Mexico, which have established a significant foothold in the country.
Mexican Cartels
The Mexican cartels, particularly the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco Nueva Generación, have extended their influence in Colombia, becoming key players in the drug market. These cartels have shifted from being mere links to the U.S. market in the 1990s to controlling the entire drug production and distribution process in Colombia. They are known as the “invisibles,” operating behind the scenes, financing drug manufacturing, and supervising shipments from Colombian territory. This change in dynamics has led to a reversal of power between Colombian and Mexican drug traffickers, with the latter now overseeing the most profitable parts of the narcotics business.
The involvement of the Mexican cartels in Colombia extends beyond mere drug trafficking; they have strategically established control over key ports such as Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena. This expansion has been significantly facilitated by forming alliances with powerful local entities, including influential families like the Char Family. These alliances have enabled the cartels to embed themselves deeply within Colombia’s socio-economic fabric, leveraging both the logistical advantages of these ports and the political and economic influence of their local partners.
The Opposition
The Char family, is only one example, a prominent and influential family in Colombia, particularly in the Caribbean region, has been implicated in facilitating the expansion of the Sinaloa Cartel in Colombia. Mexican Journalist Maria Idalia Gomez, on her news outlet Eje Central discovered, that the Sinaloa Cartel had consolidated control over several ports in Colombia, including Cartagena, Barranquilla, and Santa Marta, with the Char family allegedly involved in this operation. Members of the Char family, including Alejandro Char, former presidential Candidate and current mayor of Barranquilla, and Arturo Char, former president of the Senate currently under trial for electoral crimes and electoral corruption, have been linked to these activities.
The Char family’s involvement in this operation highlights the deep-rooted connections between local political and business elites with local and international drug trafficking organizations. This relationship poses a significant threat to Colombia’s political and social stability, as it intertwines criminal activities with legitimate business and political endeavors. The family’s influence extends to various sectors, including supermarkets, sports clubs, and financial services, raising concerns about the extent of their involvement in illegal activities.
The case of the Char family and their alleged connections with the Sinaloa Cartel exemplifies the complex and often hidden ties between local elites and international drug trafficking networks. It underscores the challenges faced by the Colombian government in combating drug trafficking and corruption, as these issues are deeply entrenched in various aspects of society. The ongoing investigations into the activities of the Char family and their links to the cartels are crucial in unraveling these complex networks and addressing the underlying issues that fuel drug trafficking and corruption in Colombia.
In addition to the Char family, the broader political landscape in Colombia, particularly the influence of Uribismo -Colombia’s far right hegemonic doctrine-, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Uribismo, associated with former President Álvaro Uribe, has been marked by numerous controversies, including allegations of human rights violations and connections with paramilitary groups. Despite these serious allegations, Uribe and Uribismo have managed to maintain a significant presence in Colombian politics, often escaping widespread international scrutiny. Curiously, outside of Colombia, there seems to be a lack of awareness about Álvaro Uribe and Uribismo, despite the human rights violations committed under their policies. This lack of international recognition of Uribismo’s dark history and its impact on Colombia’s political and social fabric highlights the need for greater awareness and understanding of the complexities of Colombian politics and the challenges faced by the current government in addressing these deep-rooted issues.
Media Monopolies
In Colombia, the media landscape is largely under the sway of conservative factions, driven more by vested interests than ideological commitments. This media hegemony, which is currently in opposition to President Petro’s government, was once in close alliance with right-wing governments backed by narco-paramilitary forces. These media outlets, now depicting a crisis under a peaceful left-wing administration, had previously turned a blind eye to the human rights violations perpetrated during the era of far-right regimes. The concentration of media ownership in Colombia has fostered a conservative bias, leading to narratives steeped in pessimism, often rooted in rumors, fake news, and defamation campaigns—a hallmark of right-wing media control worldwide.
For over two decades, this media environment has been a constant backdrop to Colombian democracy. In recent times, there has been a noticeable escalation in symbolic violence against Gustavo Petro’s government. Extreme right-wing protesters have resorted to burning effigies of Petro, issuing threats to congressmen, and hurling insults at other officials. Amplified by social media, these acts reflect a deepening intolerance and polarization within Colombian society, largely fueled by misinformation and fake news, predominantly originating from far-right media outlets and campaigns.
In this volatile environment, President Petro, along with global figures like Noam Chomsky and Jeremy Corbyn, has voiced concerns over the potential for a “soft coup.” These apprehensions highlight the deliberate attempts by conservative factions to destabilize the government using media manipulation and symbolic aggression. The looming threat of a soft coup, as articulated by Petro and others, underscores the fragile state of Colombia’s political landscape, where the battle for influence extends beyond electoral politics into the contentious arenas of media and public perception.
Petro Scandals
President Petro’s government, while striving for transformative change, has not been immune to political scandals. Among these, the case involving his son, Nicolás Petro, stands out. Nicolás has acknowledged receiving money from questionable sources, raising concerns about potential improprieties. President Petro, maintaining a stance of non-intervention, has publicly called on the attorney general to investigate the matter. This case has been particularly seized upon by the opposition, who have used it to construct a narrative of possible lawfare against Petro.
However, investigations by the Mexican news outlet Eje Central suggest a deeper and more complex scenario. They indicate that Nicolás Petro might have been unwittingly used in a larger scheme involving the Sinaloa Cartel and the Char Family. According to intelligence reports, the Char family, known for their political influence in Colombia, had contacted criminal structures in La Guajira to conspire against President Petro, aiming to prevent him from assuming power or to overthrow him. This revelation points to a broader plot to destabilize Colombia, with potential involvement of Mexican criminal organizations.
In any case, these scandals have already impacted President Petro’s image, particularly tarnishing his reputation as an anti-corruption figure. The allegations of corrupt practices within his political campaign have cast a shadow over his administration, challenging the integrity and credibility he has sought to uphold. This situation underscores the delicate balance Petro must maintain in navigating the complex and often murky waters of Colombian politics.
The Weight of Its Own Ambition
In the grand narrative of Colombia’s transformation under President Gustavo Petro, there lies a profound yet daunting ambition: to radically reshape a nation’s trajectory, akin to the remarkable economic transformations seen in South Korea and other Asian economies. Petro’s vision is not just about economic growth; it’s a holistic transformation encompassing social justice, environmental sustainability, and a departure from traditional models of development. However, this ambition carries with it the weight of immense challenges and the possibility of unmet expectations.
One of the central pillars of Petro’s ambitious plan is the energetic transformation of Colombia, a move towards decarbonization and renewable energy. This shift is critical not only for Colombia but also as a part of the global response to climate change. However, the success of this endeavor hinges on factors beyond Colombia’s borders. The international community’s commitment to climate action, particularly from the global north, remains uncertain. There’s a very real risk that the powerhouses of the world may decide that such an energetic transformation is not viable or delay action until it’s too late. The world’s response to the calls from the south and the warnings from scientists about climate change will significantly influence Colombia’s ability to realize its green ambitions.
Moreover, Petro’s aspiration to replicate the economic success stories of Asian countries is a monumental task. These nations’ paths to progress were carved out under specific historical, cultural, and geopolitical circumstances, which may not be replicable in Colombia’s context. The challenges of gathering sufficient support, both domestically and internationally, and effectively executing such transformative policies are immense. Colombia faces structural issues, including deep-rooted inequality, corruption, and ongoing conflict, which could impede these ambitious plans.
In this context, Petro’s vision, while inspiring and forward-thinking, might confront the harsh realities of political, economic, and environmental constraints. The ambition to transform Colombia into a model of progressive and sustainable development is a noble one, but it is fraught with the potential for setbacks and disappointments. The journey towards such transformative change is likely to be a complex and arduous one, requiring not just visionary leadership but also pragmatic and adaptive strategies to navigate the myriad challenges that lie ahead.
Conclusion
Steering Colombia under President Petro’s leadership is akin to guiding a complex, multifaceted organization through a transformative phase. It’s an endeavor where humanitarian principles meet the gritty realities of political and economic traditional dynamics in Colombia. Petro, in this scenario, is less of a political disruptor and more of a visionary leader attempting to orchestrate a comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s socio-economic and environmental policies.
Let’s be clear: transforming a country is an intricate and prolonged endeavor, more akin to a marathon with unexpected detours than a straightforward sprint. Colombia’s journey is laden with legacy challenges like corruption, entrenched violence, and deep socio-economic divides. These are compounded by global economic uncertainties and shifting international dynamics, making the task even more daunting.
Petro’s approach, blending social consciousness with pragmatic governance, is ambitious and laudable. However, ambition alone isn’t a panacea. The success of his administration will hinge on its ability to implement sustainable and pragmatic solutions that resonate with both the local populace and the global community.
From a consultant’s perspective, Petro’s Colombia could be seen as a ‘high-potential project’ with a visionary at its helm. It has a dedicated team and a transformative agenda that could redefine the nation’s trajectory. But as any seasoned advisor would caution, potential doesn’t always translate into success. It requires careful execution, resilience, and perhaps a touch of fortuity.
So, is there hope for Colombia? Certainly. There is space for optimism, but it’s tempered with a realistic understanding that the path to meaningful change is often filled with challenges and requires continuous adaptation. Colombia’s journey with Petro at the helm could really go two ways. On one hand, it might end up showing the world how to balance big reforms with smart, practical governance, especially in creating an economy that’s all about going green and cutting carbon emissions. On the other hand, there’s the possibility of failure, which could pave the way for Colombia’s traditionally corrupt right-wing power brokers to regain control, potentially reversing the course set by Petro’s administration.
